Executive Insights Roundtable Part I: 2024 Recruitment Predictions

2024 Recruiting Predictions

As we wrap up 2023, we’re already looking ahead to 2024. In a rapidly changing talent acquisition landscape, there are many areas where HR professionals, hiring managers, and recruiters are struggling to keep up. 

We asked TA leaders what their big, bold predictions for 2024 are, along with what advice they have for their colleagues who are also trying to hire better and faster while investing in the right tools and processes for improved Quality of Hire. We’re rolling out a two-part series to highlight all these powerful insights, starting here with their predictions. 

Part I: 2024 Talent Acquisition Predictions

We asked a group of high-level talent acquisition leaders about their “big and bold” predictions for the upcoming year. They came back with important insights into the state of recruitment in 2024.

The Awkward Phase Continues

As news reports continue to swing wildly between massive layoffs and bemoaning a lack of qualified talent, recruitment professionals find themselves between a rock and a hard place. According to a recent SHRM survey, 92% of HR leaders said the amount of work they have to undertake, along with limited budgets, a lack of resources and not having the right skills on the HR team will be barriers to success in 2024. 

Here’s what our experts have to say about the state of hiring in ‘24 and beyond:

Pete Lawson
"I think '24 will be more of the same as '23 in regards to TA and the awkward place we are finding ourselves in. Hiring is starting to pick up more and momentum is shifting but leaders are really not ready to hire back their TA functions yet... nor do I think they will be for quite some time." 

Pete Lawson, Founder and Principal Consultant
at Inspire Talent
 

Bob Pulver


“The past few years have been a roller coaster ride in the world of Talent Acquisition, and I foresee 2024 as continuing this variability and uncertainty.”

 

 


Thomas Klein

"We are forecasting a ‘soft’ and ‘short’ recession with a slow recovery starting in Q1, 2025. Time and resources will be allocated for identifying technology efficiency and what role AI will play in the business - should be an interesting year." 

Thomas Klein, Founder and Principal Consultant
at Tak Hospitality
 

ernest ng

 

“TA, get ready to be disrupted. The tools are out there and will significantly change your operating model. You are going to see more of this in 2024." 

Ernest Ng, VP of Strategy, Research, Content and Incubation at HiredScore

David Hanrahan"Hiring will still be at lower levels to start the year, but will see spikes in select states and countries. We've seen a general pullback on hiring this year (particularly in tech). I don't see any return to the crazy hiring trends of 2020-2022 in 2024."  

David Hanrahan, Chief People Officer
at Flare


Welcome to Data-Driven, Data-Informed, and Skills-Based Hiring 

Data will remain key when making decisions about hiring. The intelligent leader is “data-informed” every step of the way with forward-thinking leaders leaning more heavily into predictive analytics. The bottom line is clear: without data, hiring is a blind (and costly) shot in the dark.

Going into 2024 and beyond, skills are at the forefront of every recruiter and hiring manager’s mind - the candidate's education or background don't matter as much. A candidate needs to possess the skills and competencies required to do the job well.

This means recruiting teams need to be able to easily visualize, understand, and create reports from available data to inform their understanding of “how hiring is going” as well to compare candidates across specific skill sets to surface front-runners.

Here’s what our experts have to say about data-informed, data-driven, and skills-based hiring:


"We're shifting from degrees to deeds.
We're shifting from data-driven to data-informed."
- Levi Barbosa, Nubank


 

Levi Barbosa
"For 2024, it's all about getting cozy with AI in recruitment. It's set to overhaul those grind tasks, freeing us up to zero in on the real deal—improving candidate experience and smarter sourcing. And here’s the kicker: we're shifting from degrees to deeds. Companies are valuing hands-on skills like never before, especially in hot areas like generative AI.

We're shifting from being data-driven to data-informed. It's a big deal because data is more than just the 'new oil'—it's the lens that brings the unseen into focus. Take Crosschq's TalentWall, for example. Earlier this year, I ran a data literacy workshop for them, digging into the DIKW framework and the forms of analysis preparing them for what is coming!"

Levi Barbosa, Talent Operations
at Nubank

IMG_7439

"In 2024, I predict a major shift toward skill-based hiring, driven by advanced hiring analytics. Organizations will increasingly prioritize a candidate's skills and capabilities over traditional credentials like degrees or previous job titles. This approach will be powered by sophisticated data models that accurately assess and match skills to job requirements. 

By accurately assessing and cataloging the skills of current employees, organizations can more effectively identify internal candidates for new roles, improving hiring efficiency. This approach not only increases Quality of Hire by leveraging existing talent but also reduces the time and resources spent on external recruitment. 

Furthermore, this data-driven strategy fosters a culture of transparency and opportunity, encouraging employees to develop skills aligned with their career aspirations and the company’s evolving needs."

Brandon Redlinger, VP of Marketing
at Crosschq


Remote and Hybrid Models Are Here to Stay (for Now)

The pandemic forced companies to go remote or go under - but now, with expensive office space sitting empty, the pressure is on and executives are pushing for a ‘return to office’ mandate across many industries.

Employees and candidates are pushing back, however, citing the strong preferences for work-life balance, reduced commute times and costs of transportation, higher productivity, and less stress as reasons to work from home at least part of the time. 

A recent survey by McKinsey noted that, when flexible work options are offered, 87% of Americans jump at the chance for more autonomy over when and where they work. 

Here’s what our experts have to say about the future of remote and hybrid work:

David Hanrahan

“We've seen a general stabilization of in-office vs. remote and hybrid in terms of percentage of people and companies in each mode.”

David Hanrahan, Chief People Officer
at Flare

Levi Barbosa

"I'm sure that remote work and hybrid models will continue for a couple of years. It's been a game-changer. Companies have snagged top-notch talent on the cheap by tapping into the global market."

Levi Barbosa, Talent Operations at Nubank

Automation and AI: Game ON. 

Automation and AI have been the golden ticket for employers and the boogeyman for employees for decades now, while recruiters are caught in the middle, not sure if it’s a threat or a boon. What is increasingly apparent is that AI and automation alone don’t deliver ideal outcomes; the human touch is still required, especially in a high-touch field like recruitment.

A whopping 71% of Americans oppose AI making final hiring decisions, according to recent data from Pew Research Center. However, 47% say AI would do a better job than humans at treating all applicants in the same way (reducing unconscious bias.) 

A balance must be struck between too little or too much dependency on these tools. Smart recruiters will embrace them to manage repetitive and time-consuming tasks while focusing their own cognitive bandwidth on people-first engagement.

Here’s what our experts have to say about automation and AI:

Pete Lawson"The right people are thinking about automation and how to build a great team/ function for a fraction of the overhead. AI is the hot topic right now and vendors who offer AI functionality and can show ROI on not having to hire a recruiter or sourcer are going to win in '24.

I think the People Ops role will grow as a result - this role will get bigger and will get more and more technical as AI continues to take over the TA space. Bad recruiters will find new areas to grow their careers in, while solid recruiters will always find a home." 

Pete Lawson, Founder and Principal Consultant
at Inspire Talent

jeremy a lyons

"Interviewers will become more comfortable with candidates using AI in their interviews - Instead of punishing candidates for using AI, companies will allow them to use it during their interviews. This will have limitations, but the general premise will be to see how candidates would use it during their actual job."

Candidates will receive transcripts of their interviews - Many AI transcription tools offer the option to send the transcript to both parties in a meeting. Instead of opaque interview processes, companies will allow the candidates to receive the transcripts for their interviews."

Jeremy Lyons, RecOps Consultant and Co-Founder
at RecOpps Collective

PJ Johnson"AI will have an increasing impact on all things HR. Outline what, where, how in a weekly meeting on it. Does it hurt the company, can it help the company, do we need to change our HR Handbook because of it. Deeper protections, add protections. 

Meet with other business units to get a list of what they are thinking with AI to learn how it could impact HR Handbook. Move to AI platforms where possible, Expensify for example. Help the employees and managers benefit from cutting down time doing expenses, get the benefit of AI helping you and them during travel or expensing."

PJ Johnson, Chief Revenue Officer at Sud Scrub


Tony Scott

"War for tech talent continues to get increasingly intense – especially in tech generally and cyber and AI specifically… AI will play a bigger role in sourcing, processing, and downselecting in TA processes."

Tony Scott, Chief Executive Officer
at Intrusion


Julie Coucoles
"On the tech side, companies will want to start making use of AI in recruiting. Companies who are able to show true impact with new and exciting ways to use AI tools, especially if it means successfully lowering the cost of hiring, will win in 2024."

Julie Coucoles
Independent Fractional Talent Leader and Search Consultant 

ernest ng"With these AI tools augmenting recruiters, a junior recruiter can perform just as well as a seasoned recruiter. Imagine how that’s going to impact your cost and capacity model! Additionally, with these AI tools, hiring managers can manage the hiring process without a recruiter for certain roles."

Ernest Ng, VP of Strategy, Research, Content and Incubation
at HiredScore

Bob Pulver"The battle for “AI App Store” supremacy will begin, with foundational model vendors courting developers and users with promises of trusted data sources, seamless integrations, and robust governance and observability frameworks. Within the enterprise, the C-suite (including the CHRO) will begin to question whether they trust their incumbent ‘tentpole’ vendors to handle all their Generative AI needs, or establish a new trusted partnership to chart their path for the evolution of work." 

Bob Pulver, Founder and Principal Consultantat Cognitive Path

 

AI’s Impact on Digital Privacy and Forensics in Hiring

AI-based recruitment is continuing to grow by leaps and bounds, with legislation guiding its usage starting to catch up. Will companies willingly comply, or try to skirt new rules? If they fail to comply, it’s also fair to wonder  what the consequences will be when they are caught.

States and local jurisdictions have been slow to kickstart regulation of AI use in hiring, but that is rapidly changing. Fast Company’s article about AI in hiring points at Amazon’s failed 2014 experiment in which the company’s AI “learned” erroneously that male candidates were automatically preferable as proof that such legislation is desperately needed.

Tools that support “forensics in hiring” are just as needed, as they can help surface patterns and highlight potential ethical or compliance issues before they have the chance to negatively impact a company. 

Here’s what our experts have to say about potential legal issues facing AI recruiting in 2024:

 

Bob Pulver

"A well-known F500 company will make headlines for the wrong reasons: failing to comply with NYC Local Law 144’s AI Bias legislation. This will have ripple effects throughout the HR technology vendor landscape, but perhaps more importantly, it will trigger widespread concern across the TA teams using automated employment decision tools (AEDTs), most of whom have largely ignored this requirement.

Additionally, new legislation focused on AI bias mitigation makes headlines for going beyond what NYC LL144 covers. This elevates the discourse on the reasonableness and enforceability of legislation in an effort to prevent adverse impacts on a growing list of protected categories and attributes."

Bob Pulver, Founder and Principal Consultant at Cognitive Path

Tony Scott

“As digital natives are now a bigger and bigger proportion of the workforce, expect some new regulation in terms of new rules around privacy, and use of digital forensics in hiring.”

Tony Scott, Chief Executive Officer at Intrusion


The Pending “Vendor Apocalypse” and the Fight to Cut Hiring Costs

The state of vendors in the hiring market is highly volatile, and we can expect to see upheaval continue into 2024. Vendors who make it through this period of instability will be offering distinct products, tools, and services designed to optimize human processes and lower cost-per-hire.

Cutting costs is critical for many companies who are facing a distinct lack of budget allocated to their HR and recruitment efforts. These organizations are eager for recruiting automation solutions from vendors that can help them streamline their operations, particularly in geographic locations with a downturn in the local economy.

Here’s what our experts have to say about which vendors will survive - and how:

 

Pete Lawson

"I think this is going to be a big year of the vendor apocalypse... as I think this market will show the world who is really able to last through the low times and as a result the market will consolidate a bit more, creating less noise and more opportunity for those vendors that make it into '25-'26."

Pete Lawson, Founder and Principal Consultant at Inspire Talent

jeremy a lyons

"More All-In-One solutions will be in the market - We're already seeing a consolidation of tools with major players either launching ATS or other components so teams don't have to toggle through multiple windows and balance multiple contracts."

Jeremy Lyons, RecOps Consultant and Co-Founder at RecOpps Collective

Thomas Klein

"Travel and tourism for the Bay Area will be at record lows for convention business and as such there will be cost containment initiatives in place, coupled with cash preservation across the board."

Thomas Klein, Founder and Principal Consultant at Tak Hospitality

jay wilkinson

"Budgets are tight but top talent may become available- be prepared to target top external talent and have an exception / budget approval process ready with senior HR, CFO and line of business executives to pounce on strategic/ top talent hires."

Jay Wilkinson, SVP: Director of HR People Analytics and Employee Engagement at PNC

IMG_4217

"Everyone is talking about AI, but I think it's going to be more about efficiency and tooling to help optimize systems/processes. 

We saw so many RIFs the last couple of years and I think there's still some PTSD to bringing on full-time roles (both on the employer and candidate side.) 

Fractional/Interim work has been on the uprise, so I think we'll see more of that plugged into leaner teams with more robust tooling. I'm curious to see how it all plays out!"

Meredith Sanders, Independent HR & Talent Acquisition Consultant

 

Traditional Sourcing Is Fading Fast 

Whether you want to call it a slowdown, a downgrade, or an outright death, it’s a fact that traditional sourcing is well past its heyday. It’s being replaced by a hybrid of AI, automation, internal/external data-gathering and analysis to create ready-to-hire talent pools that can be tapped as needed.

Changes to hiring processes across the board (like traditional reference checking, interview scores, and third-party candidate assessments) are going out the window, replaced by tools and functions that put top candidates in the spotlight and look for the core skills and competencies that predict Quality of Hire.

Here’s what our experts have to say about how sourcing and hiring processes are changing:

 

Carolyn Frey

"Between application volume and the market, traditional sourcing will be dead in 2024." 

Carolyn Frey, Chief People Officer at Hungryroot

David Hanrahan

“... as company P&Ls stabilize and the venture markets remain relatively flat (and stock prices / valuations remain constrained), I predict we'll see companies try to get creative with funding R&D and new pods by investing their limited net-new hiring dollars in locations where they can have the greatest sheer number of hires they can make vs. the highest cost locations."

David Hanrahan, Chief People Officer at Flare 

jay wilkinson"Labor markets will continue to slow and hiring ratios will shift to internal candidates where possible because internal candidates are less expensive and more productive" 

Jay Wilkinson, SVP: Director of HR People Analytics and Employee Engagement at PNC


Bob Pulver"Extended workforce ecosystems become more prominent, in part through a high-profile merger of a leading internal talent marketplace (ITM) vendor and one of the largest freelance marketplaces. This elevates the concept of ‘total talent intelligence’ and causes TA teams to rethink their scope and mission in support of an agile workforce. It also creates a renewed push for fundamental work redesign, orchestrating skills and resources in a more fluid and dynamic fashion."

Bob Pulver, Founder and Principal Consultant
at Cognitive Path

IMG_7439

"In 2024, we’ll start to see a transformation of talent acquisition into a talent ecosystem. Building and maintaining dynamic talent pools will become paramount. Employers will actively engage with not only candidates but also their professional networks, including references, to identify hidden gems. Leveraging data to inquire about the openness of references to new opportunities will become a standard practice. This innovative approach ensures a continuous pipeline of high-quality talent, leading to improved hiring efficiency and enhanced Quality of Hire. By expanding our talent horizons through trusted connections, we'll revolutionize the way we find and onboard talent."

Brandon Redlinger, VP of Marketing at Crosschq

Moving Forward Confidently Into 2024 With Crosschq

Crosschq gives you all of the tools you need to achieve your recruitment goals and support your company's overall mission in 2024. 

Not sure if you’re ready for 2024? Worried about something specific? Don’t know where to start? Contact our team for a demonstration today, and find out what Crosschq can do for you. 

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Topics from this blog: Talent Acquisition Recruiting Hiring Intelligence

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